Gold, silver, bull runs… or corrections?
My two cents — without drama. Lately, precious metals are back in focus. Some ask whether this move continues or whether a correction is overdue.
Gunvaldis Ezermanis
1/27/20261 min read
Gold, silver, bull runs… or corrections?
My two cents — without drama.
Lately, precious metals are back in focus. Some ask whether this move continues or whether a correction is overdue.
Zoom out.
When equity indices rise simultaneously and the USD index hovers around 97, it doesn’t look like organic growth. It looks like slow, coordinated currency debasement — led by the U.S., with others quietly following.
Inflating assets is the only politically survivable way out of a debt trap without an immediate shock.
At this stage, asking “what should gold cost?” is the wrong question.
The better one is: how much purchasing power is the currency losing relative to M2 expansion?
If we use simple debt arithmetic:
• U.S. federal debt: ~$36T
• Average maturity: ~6 years
• Average coupon: well below inflation
• Required real erosion to stabilize the system: ~40–60%
Gold is the debt-free measuring stick.
Roughly speaking:
• Gold ≈ $5,000 already reflects partial repricing
• If the dollar loses another 50% of real value → gold ≈ $10,000
• At 65–70% erosion → $13,000–$15,000
This is not a forecast.
It’s not a call.
It’s just arithmetic.